Cotality: Hurricane Isaias Threatens About 777,000 Homes Along the Northern Gulf Coast as a Major Hurricane
Reconstruction cost value of homes at risk of wind damage in the eight counties under a Hurricane Warning totals about $241.6B
IRVINE, Calif., October 09, 2026--Cotality, a leader in property information and analytics, today released data analysis showing about 777,000 homes across the eight counties under a Hurricane Warning, from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle, sit at moderate or greater risk of wind damage from Hurricane Isaias. Those homes carry a reconstruction cost value (RCV) of about $241.6 billion. Isaias became a Category 3 major hurricane Friday morning, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph.
Forecasters expect it to weaken to a high-end Category 2 before landfall late Friday, Oct. 9, or early Saturday, Oct. 10. Storm surge adds to the threat: about 342,000 homes across the Storm Surge Warning area, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, face moderate or greater surge risk, representing about $101.5 billion in RCV. Figures reflect warnings in the National Hurricane Center's 7 a.m. CDT advisory and its 7:20 a.m. update on Friday, Oct. 9.
As Isaias nears the coast, its path will come into sharper focus and the metropolitan areas at risk will narrow. For the most up-to-date hurricane exposure estimates, visit Cotality's natural hazard risk information center, Hazard HQ Command Central®.
"The continental U.S. has had quiet 2025 and 2026 hurricane seasons, but it looks like that ends this weekend," said Cotality Chief Scientist Howard Botts. "Isaias could bring two very different claims outcomes. Storm surge is a flood problem, so most of those losses will involve the National Flood Insurance Program and private flood carriers. Wind damage and outage-related claims are a homeowners policy problem. And because Isaias should keep a wide wind field as it races inland, homeowners well beyond the coast in Alabama and Georgia may be filing claims, too."
The National Hurricane Center forecasts 6 to 9 feet of storm surge from the Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach, Florida, which covers Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin. Forecasters also note that a delay of only about six hours in the onset of wind shear could bring a stronger hurricane onshore.
Total number and RCV ($ in billions) of homes at moderate or greater risk of Hurricane Isaias wind and surge damage
Figures are approximate
| Area | Homes at | Wind RCV | Homes at | Surge RCV |
| Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, Florida | 353,000 | $115.8 | 78,000 | $26.1 |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent metro area | 201,000 | $66.1 | 32,000 | $10.7 |
| Mobile metro area | 161,000 | $46.9 | 21,000 | $5.3 |
| All eight Hurricane Warning counties | 777,000 | $241.6 | 217,000 | $65.2 |